What is marginal ROAS?
Marginal ROAS is the return on the next pound of ad spend, not the blended average of everything spent so far. It is the additional revenue an extra increment of budget is forecast to produce divided by that increment. Forecasting Intelligence models marginal ROAS per channel so budget moves to where the next pound works hardest.
How do you forecast ad spend?
You model the relationship between spend and outcomes - accounting for diminishing returns and saturation - to project revenue, leads, ROAS or CPL before budget is committed. ElenIQ trains on your historical campaign data, fits response curves per channel, and returns confidence-scored projections with prediction intervals.
What is a saturation curve in paid media?
A saturation curve describes how extra spend on a channel returns progressively less as it scales. Early spend is efficient; beyond a point each additional pound buys fewer conversions. Forecasting Intelligence fits a saturation curve to every channel so you can see where returns start to flatten.
How do you know when a channel is saturated?
A channel is saturating when its marginal ROAS falls below its average ROAS and keeps declining as spend rises. ElenIQ flags this by comparing the next pound's forecast return against the channel's recent efficiency, so you can stop scaling before returns turn unprofitable.
How do you move budget between paid media channels?
Shift budget away from channels whose marginal return has dropped and toward channels where the next pound still performs - without starving a channel below the point it can sustain. Forecasting Intelligence recommends reallocations across all channels at once, modelling cross-channel interaction effects rather than treating each in isolation.
What data does Forecasting Intelligence need?
Historical campaign data with dates, channels, spend and an outcome column (revenue or conversions for e-commerce, leads for lead generation). Upload a CSV or connect a Google Sheet; ElenIQ auto-detects channels, cost columns, currencies and date formats, then checks data quality before forecasting.
Does it work for lead generation as well as e-commerce?
Yes. Forecasting Intelligence supports both business models: revenue and ROAS for e-commerce, and leads and CPL for lead generation. The lead-gen mode applies guardrails - CPL clamping, spend-range validation and conversion-rate stability checks - so projections stay realistic.
How accurate are the forecasts?
Every forecast reports accuracy against your own history using WMAPE as the primary metric, alongside a baseline comparison and 95% prediction intervals. ElenIQ never presents a single point estimate as certainty - it shows the expected range and a confidence score so you can judge how much to trust each projection.
How is Forecasting Intelligence different from Annual Investment Planning?
Forecasting Intelligence answers questions about scenarios and proposed changes: what happens if spend moves, where the next portion of budget should go and what the incremental return is likely to be. Annual Investment Planning is a separate workflow for the full-year budget - its market, channel and monthly allocation. Forecasts can inform the annual plan's assumptions, but the two stay distinct.
Is Forecasting Intelligence sold separately?
No. Forecasting Intelligence is included with every ElenIQ plan, alongside Media Planning, Annual Investment Planning, Creative Intelligence, Affiliate Growth Intelligence and Ask Dex, with unlimited users. Plans are priced only by the number of advertiser workspaces you manage.